On Saturday night, the Buffalo Bills will host the New England Patriots in the first full-capacity playoff game in Orchard Park since 1996. The atmosphere is going to be as electric as the temperature will be cold.The two clubs split during the regular season, and in the most-recent outing, the Bills didn't punt in a 33-21 victory in Foxboro. Let's lay out how the Bills can win the rubber match against the Patriots to advance to the divisional round. These three elements of the game will be key.When Adam Jones Jersey the Bills won convincingly over the Patriots in Week 16, Allen had one of his finest performances to date in the NFL. The Patriots only blitzed him on 11 of 49 snaps (22.4%), likely thinking keeping Allen in the pocket was the best strategy to limit Buffalo's offense. That didn't work. I bet Belichick tries to turn up the heat on Allen in this contest with a higher blitz rate. While Allen's against-the-blitz statistics aren't gaudy -- nine touchdowns, four picks, and a 6.0 yards-per-attempt average that's part of a rather low 81.2 pa ser rating -- Allen ran 26 times when pre sured during the regular season and accumulated 202 yards on those plays with a league-high 67 first downs. He also ran for six scores on the ground in all situations.Allen is best when he's ripping throws aggre sively from in the pocket, taking what the defense gives him at times, sprinkling in some scrambles and designed runs, and occasionally taking deep shots. Belichick will attempt to keep Allen one-dimensional. If he remains "himself" and plays with a good blend of pocket pa ses, designed runs, scrambles, and off-script throws, the Bills offense will be in great shape in this contest.Piggybacking off Allen staying true to himself, the same is true Trey Hopkins Jersey for the Bills somewhat underrated, recently stout, and incredibly unique run defense. Of course run defense statistics always need contest because good teams often allow rushing yards late with a lead. DVOA from Football Outsiders is a good, all-encompa sing metric that factors in quality of opponent. during the regular season. As a defense, the Bills finished third in tackles for lo s (92). In the Wind Bowl lo s to the Patriots, the Bills allowed 222 yards on the ground at a 4.8 yards-per-carry clip. With context added -- those 222 yards were skewed slightly by Harris' 64-yard touchdown run in Carl Lawson Jersey the first half. Sure, that run counts and certainly matters. But 22 of those 46 runs -- discounting two kneels -- went for three or fewer yards.And of late, the Bills run defense has sharpened. You're probably thinking, they must be a big "eight-man-in-the-box" team. Nope. Quite the opposite actually. The Bills defense saw 392 rushes when it had between four and seven men in the box during the regular season. Only four teams defended more runs with "light boxes." Interestingly, Buffalo finished with the highest total Expected Points Added (EPA) in those "light box" situations.In short, the Bills adore utilizing light boxes to stop the run and are really good at doing so. Why do they love that philosophy? It keeps the defense prepared to defend the pa s on any play. Want proof? The Bills allowed just 5 Geno Atkins Jersey .11 yards per play against play action during the regular season, the lowest figure in football. It will be difficult enough for Mac Jones to make connections with his receivers, backs, and tight ends against Buffalo's defense in frigid temperatures. Then add the layer of the Bills not telegraphing what type of play they're trying to stop, and it makes Jones' job daunting. And the Bills unusual run-stopping game plan will limit the Patriots ground game enough to keep New England's point total relatively low.The Bills went 5-of-8 on red-zone trips (scoring touchdowns) in the two December Cordy Glenn Jersey matchups against the Patriots. That 62.5% is nearly identical to Buffalo's entire season red-zone touchdown rate of 62.3%.Only the Cowboys (291.4) averaged more yards per game between the 20s than the Bills (286.2) during the regular season. The Bills are going to move the ball against New England. And let's say they enter the red zone five times -- they reached the Patriots red zone on seven occasions in Foxboro a few weeks ago and four times in the Wind Bowl -- the numbers suggest they'll score three touchdowns. Add in at least one other field goal, that's 24 points. That should be enough to secure the victory against the Patriots and move on to the divisional round.
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