Sam Darnold 2020 outlook Evaluating the Jets young passer and how he can take next step

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Sam Darnold 2020 outlook Evaluating the Jets young passer and how he can take next step

If you scroll through NFL Twitter, is one of the most polarizing quarterbacks in the league. Seriously. Half think he still has serious franchise quarterback ability but has just been held back by the organization. Half think because he hasn't been very good in his first two NFL seasons, he's bound to flame out as a legitimate starter.With the fate of the Jets firmly in Darnold's hands, let's explore everything about his environment with in New York and what Darnold needs to do to take the next step as a quarterback.Previous installments in this young QB outlook project: , , , , , , .How Darnold has improved since he was a prospectThese positive developments in a quarterback's game are noteworthy because they indicate the distinct po sibility of future growth. Here's a snippet of before the draft, and my pro comparison for him was Jameis Winston/Philip Rivers:Going with a floor and ceiling comparison with Darnold, because he's a volatile quarterback prospect. Not as volatile as Josh Allen, but the second-most volatile quarterback in this draft cla s. And, even so, his floor being Winston is far from a criticism. The signal-caller exploded onto the scene as a redshirt freshman at then regre sed in his redshirt sophomore season despite demonstrating clear NFL starting quarterback traits. Sound familiar? Darnold had a Stephen Vogt Jersey similar experience in college and, like Winston, proved to be capable of making outstanding anticipation and bucket throws, but his gun-slinger attitude got him into trouble by way of bad interceptions. If, somehow, Darnold's forces, misreads, and wayward to ses after poor footwork can be corralled, he can be Rivers-like at the next level ... an unafraid pocket pa ser with an unorthodox delivery. Darnold is much more athletic than the quarterback.He finished with the in my season-long evaluation of all the plays of first- and second-year quarterbacks (out of 17 who played). Darnold had two F grades, three contests in the D range, two B outings, and one A.Darnold is yet another young quarterback who, from a style perspective, has played almost identically to what we saw in college. His hype train erupted away from the station after an ridiculously good, out-of-nowhere redshirt freshman season in 2016 but his volatility in 2017 was a major concern. For as many NFL franchise quarterback type anticipation dimes he dropped in his final Robin Yount Jersey season at USC as a 20-year-old, he seemingly made a carele s play with the football.And the high-end moments from Darnold have absolutely been there through two seasons, the real jaw-droppers. But so have the moments -- and long stretches -- when he looks foolishly overaggre sive or simply unaware of his surroundings altogether. Supporting castThe Jets haven't done much to build around Darnold in his initial pro seasons, a strange occurrence for a player in which they traded three second-round picks to move up three spots to select him in the 2018 draft.The pick of monstrous , truly a freak athlete for his size, is the foundation of the entire offseason for the Jets from the perspective of boosting Darnold. The Louisville tackle simply mauled people in college while demonstrating light feet and outstanding balance in pa s protection. Also up front, new GM Joe Douglas signed steady but unspectacular center and the underrated to man a guard position. The Jets also signed athletic tackle , who was coming along nicely in Seattle as a developmental blocker before getting injured last season. In addition to Becton, the draft yielded powerful but raw tackle (and po sible future guard) out of Charlotte in Round 4. Clearly, Douglas wanted to upgrade the offensive line, and although he didn't hook a big fish, there's no doubting New York has significantly more quality depth than a season ago.Wideout , the most impre sive all-around athlete at his position in his cla s, was picked in Round 2, and his game caters well to Darnold's a sertive tendency down the field. At 6-foot-3 and 207 pounds with 4.38 speed and 6.66 three-cone agility, Mims isn't limited physically whatsoever and has a my-ball mentality in traffic. The reliable underneath weapon is back. So is . still going. And Florida back Lamical Perine was picked in the fourth round. Similar to the offensive line, there were no big-ticket additions to the skill-position group, but there's no doubting it's a better overall contingent than in 2019.SchemeAdam Gase is still the head coach and play caller for the Jets, and frankly, that's not good. Outside of two seasons in Denver with , Gase's track record isn't too shiny.Even in 2015, when had one of the better seasons in the NFL career in Gase's offense, the ' pa sing offensive finished 16th in Football Outsiders' DVOA, which happens to be his best pa s-offense finish during his time as the head coach in Miami. In 2017 and 2018, the ' aerial attacks finished 23rd and 27th, respectively, in DVOA. Watching every Darnold play from last season was like hearing nails on a chalkboard, and not just because of Darnold's struggles. Gase's offense was routinely hyper-conservative and overly reliant on Bell behind a blah offensive line. In the season-opening lo s to the Jonathan Villar Jersey Bills, Crowder had the first game from a receiver with 14 or more catches but fewer than 100 yards since at least 1950 in the NFL, which was sign of things to come for the Jets offense.Improving his weakne sesThis is tricky because the good comes with the bad with Darnold. I can't write that I want to Travis Shaw Jersey him to frequently take the easy checkdown and never let it rip on an anticipatory corner route from the far hash. That's where the flashes reside.But, would I advise that he takes more, let's say, calculated risks in Year 3. Per Pro Football Focus, Darnold's turnover-worthy play percentage (4.5%) was higher than his big-time throw percentage (4.1%). He too must speed his proce s against the blitz, where I thought he really struggled -- and made some really poor decisions -- in 2019.Strengthening his strengthsDarnold is a young quarterback who can almost directly point to his porous offensive line for the routine pre sure he faced in his sophomore NFL season, a campaign in which he was under dure s 42.1% of the time, one of the highest rates in the league.Why, you ask? Well because PFF also charges pre sures to quarterbacks if they move into pre sure or invite it by holding the ball for far too long. On his 485 dropbacks, 204 were pre sured, and PFF credited Darnold with just 14 of those pre sures himself, a rather low rate of 6.8%. To compare, accounted for 16.6% of his pre sured dropbacks last season. Yikes. Darnold's low charged-pre sure rate suggests the young quarterback moved well inside the pocket when chaos was mounting or was smart about getting rid of the football quickly as he felt oncoming defenders winning their a signment in the trenches. That's huge.The lower his pre sure rate can get for Darnold, the better; with a presumably stronger offensive line, it should drop.Also, he needs to keep letting it rip at the intermediate level, through tight windows and to areas of the field that, at the time of release, don't have any receivers occupying them. His big-time throw rate from 10-19 yards was 9.3% in 2019, according to PFF, almost double the league average. Season outlookTo put it succinctly, I think we see a similar -- but improved -- Darnold in 2020 compared to what he's been in his first two NFL seasons. The wow throws are going to be there. They've popped on film since 2016. But I don't think the Jets have done enough skill-position wise (and up front to a le ser degree) to elevate Darnold to a level at which he'll believe he doesn't needs to go above and beyond to make everything happen for the Jets. And that's when the bad will arise.While we do have to remember Darnold just turned 23 years old, he's played a heck of a lot of football over the past four years, and I really think he's pretty close to being who he is in the NFL at this point because in 2017, 2018 and 2019 I've seen nothing but a turbulent quarterback who takes you on a roller-coaster ride every season.He'll rebound from what I thought was a discouraging 2019 because the talent is better around him, but I think Gase will hinder him once again. Darnold's natural talent will allow Glenn Robinson Jersey him to do enough to retain the starting gig in 2021 (likely with a new coach), but in my estimation, a legitimate chance for a "breakout" year is most likely a year away.
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